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Does Carvana Have the Capacity to Reach 3M Annual Retail Sales?
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Key Takeaways
Carvana sold a record 596,641 retail units in 2025, up 43% year over year.
To reach 3M units, the required CAGR is 38% to 2030 and 18% to 2035.
Carvana has 34 reconditioning sites and capacity for 1.5M units, with real estate to support 3M.
Carvana Co. (CVNA - Free Report) reported 43% growth in retail units sold to reach a record 596,641 vehicles in 2025. This strong expansion significantly improved the company’s trajectory toward its long-term targets.
Following the 2025 results, the compound annual growth rates required to meet its retail unit goals for 2030 and 2035 have reached 38% and 18%, respectively, per the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings transcript. This shift reflects the company’s meaningful progress toward reaching and potentially surpassing its target of selling 3 million retail units annually. The company attributes this optimism to the strength of its customer offering and consistently positive business feedback.
Carvana expects a substantial runway ahead but acknowledges that considerable work remains, particularly in scaling operations to handle much higher sales volumes. Executing efficiently at scale is now a central priority. Vehicle reconditioning remains the most operationally intensive component of Carvana’s business model and is expected to stay a primary focus for the foreseeable future. The company aims to expand this function rapidly while maintaining cost efficiency and high-quality standards. Carvana believes it now has its strongest foundation ever for scaling reconditioning operations effectively.
The company already owns sufficient real estate to support 3 million units annually and has invested in facilities capable of producing 1.5 million vehicles per year. Its process management systems within reconditioning centers are more advanced and robust than ever before. With 34 reconditioning locations currently operational, the highest number in its history, Carvana has broadened its geographic reach, enabling faster hiring and production scaling across multiple markets. CVNA carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
While competitors such as Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI - Free Report) and Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD - Free Report) have not announced aggressive annual vehicle sales targets, they are focusing on broadening their geographic presence to increase sales and gain market share.
In 2025, Group 1 acquired one Lexus and three Toyota dealerships in the U.K., along with Lexus and Acura dealerships in Fort Myers, and Mercedes-Benz dealerships in Austin and Atlanta. These acquisitions are expected to generate approximately $640 million in annual revenues. At the same time, Group 1 actively divested underperforming assets, disposing of 13 dealerships comprising 32 franchises that generated about $775 million in annualized revenue, underscoring its focus on portfolio optimization and capital discipline.
In 2025, Lithia added $2.4 billion in annualized revenues through acquisitions. Lithia continues to target $2 billion to $4 billion in annual acquired revenues in 2026. It is focused on buying large, high-performing stores in the Southeast and South-Central United States, where profitability is strong. Apart from buyouts, LAD’s North American JV sale to Pinewood AI has streamlined rollout, unified the platform, reduced duplication and sped up delivery.
Carvana’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Carvana has underperformed the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry in the past six months. CVNA shares have lost 13.5% compared with the industry’s decline of 13.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, Carvana appears overvalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 2.5, higher than its industry’s 1.89.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 EPS has moved down 17 cents and $1.77, respectively, in the past 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
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Does Carvana Have the Capacity to Reach 3M Annual Retail Sales?
Key Takeaways
Carvana Co. (CVNA - Free Report) reported 43% growth in retail units sold to reach a record 596,641 vehicles in 2025. This strong expansion significantly improved the company’s trajectory toward its long-term targets.
Following the 2025 results, the compound annual growth rates required to meet its retail unit goals for 2030 and 2035 have reached 38% and 18%, respectively, per the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings transcript. This shift reflects the company’s meaningful progress toward reaching and potentially surpassing its target of selling 3 million retail units annually. The company attributes this optimism to the strength of its customer offering and consistently positive business feedback.
Carvana expects a substantial runway ahead but acknowledges that considerable work remains, particularly in scaling operations to handle much higher sales volumes. Executing efficiently at scale is now a central priority. Vehicle reconditioning remains the most operationally intensive component of Carvana’s business model and is expected to stay a primary focus for the foreseeable future. The company aims to expand this function rapidly while maintaining cost efficiency and high-quality standards. Carvana believes it now has its strongest foundation ever for scaling reconditioning operations effectively.
The company already owns sufficient real estate to support 3 million units annually and has invested in facilities capable of producing 1.5 million vehicles per year. Its process management systems within reconditioning centers are more advanced and robust than ever before. With 34 reconditioning locations currently operational, the highest number in its history, Carvana has broadened its geographic reach, enabling faster hiring and production scaling across multiple markets. CVNA carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
While competitors such as Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI - Free Report) and Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD - Free Report) have not announced aggressive annual vehicle sales targets, they are focusing on broadening their geographic presence to increase sales and gain market share.
In 2025, Group 1 acquired one Lexus and three Toyota dealerships in the U.K., along with Lexus and Acura dealerships in Fort Myers, and Mercedes-Benz dealerships in Austin and Atlanta. These acquisitions are expected to generate approximately $640 million in annual revenues. At the same time, Group 1 actively divested underperforming assets, disposing of 13 dealerships comprising 32 franchises that generated about $775 million in annualized revenue, underscoring its focus on portfolio optimization and capital discipline.
In 2025, Lithia added $2.4 billion in annualized revenues through acquisitions. Lithia continues to target $2 billion to $4 billion in annual acquired revenues in 2026. It is focused on buying large, high-performing stores in the Southeast and South-Central United States, where profitability is strong. Apart from buyouts, LAD’s North American JV sale to Pinewood AI has streamlined rollout, unified the platform, reduced duplication and sped up delivery.
Carvana’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
Carvana has underperformed the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry in the past six months. CVNA shares have lost 13.5% compared with the industry’s decline of 13.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective, Carvana appears overvalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 2.5, higher than its industry’s 1.89.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 EPS has moved down 17 cents and $1.77, respectively, in the past 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research